A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
