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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.