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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a resolute stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "serious ramifications" in August should Putin continued hindering ceasefire negotiations, the former president finally introduced substantial sanctions on the Russian two largest energy firms, these major energy companies. This action seriously impacted Putin's capability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by both nations' officials without Ukrainian or European participation, he has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Aggression

This plan would effectively reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while putting the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although ringing statements that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively weaken that same independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate past, the former president persists to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, as if giving Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will appease the president. But, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a charred area of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear desire to weaken it so it stops functions as an attractive example for the Russian people of the responsible government that his deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in position the presently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force the nation to give up all of Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with territory that its forces have been unable to occupy in over a decade of fighting, this concession would leave Ukrainian military defenses critically weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that are a essential barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these positions, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital should he later decide to restart the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a action that would enable renewed hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no equivalent restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, the proposal states: "All Nazi belief system and practices must be opposed and forbidden." As if to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the plan includes the Russian Federation commit not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has breached similar treaties in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community believe Russia this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on western protection assurances. Although the proposal warns of a "strong coordinated defense action" should Russia restart its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars vary from fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not only prevent the nation alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the security presence, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from restoring his diminished military, restocking, and attacking again.

World Concern

Another side agreement according to sources would provide the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary deterrent against renewed hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, such as the US administration, to act through arms to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not