Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
