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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still